Here’s why USD/JPY is heading to 115


Via an overnight piece from Commerzbank, comments on the BOJ and the yen

I’ve pulled out a few snippets. Firstlt, on the Q1 GDP report:

And, on the data still to come this week (Friday brings CPI):

  • all we need now is weak inflation data on Friday then everyone should realise why the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is keeping schtum about a “possible exit”

And, more on the Bank of Japan:

  • at its last meeting in late April … refrained from pointing out explicitly in the statement that it expects an inflation rate of 2% or above in 2019 but merely stated that nothing had changed compared with the January outlook. So it was left to everyone to look up in the forecasting tables and find out that the projection data had not changed.

And … the implications for the central bank in the yen:

  • And that in turn means that the BoJ will not change anything about its monetary policy for the foreseeable future and that USD-JPY should appreciate. As a result we feel comfortable with our USD-JPY outlook of 115 by year-end.

(bolding mine) 



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