The long bond is the big focus
US 10-year yields rose to the highest since 2011 today but the bigger technical level is in 30 years.
The resistance is easy to spot as it ranges from the current level of 3.18% to 3.25%. With rates up 5 bps today, it won’t take much more to bust out.
Bill Gross thinks it won’t happen. He highlights the long-term downtrend over the past 30-years, which comes in a 3.22%.
“Will 3.22% be broken to upside?” he asks on Twitter. “I don’t think so. The economy can’t support yields higher than 3.25% for 30s and 10s, nor 3% for 5s. Continuing hibernating bond bear market is best forecast.”
If he’s right it doesn’t necessarily mean the US dollar will reverse right away but it would be a good sign for stocks and would limit how far the US dollar might run.
more recommended stories
US dollar selling accelerates after Fed minutes
US dollar gives back gains The.
US weekly DOE oil inventories +5778K vs -2000K expected
Weekly energy inventories and production data.
Economic data is still what matters moving forward for the BOE
Today’s inflation figures isn’t enough to.
Trading ideas for the European session – 23 May 2018
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share.
UK CPI and Fed minutes due today. Big Wednesday? Super Wednesday?
Previews for the UK inflation and.
Americans in four states will vote in primaries tonight
Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky and Texas in.
US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index +16 vs +10 expected
Richmond Fed regional manufacturing survey –.
Bundesbank sees German economic growth picking up again in Q2
Bundesbank comments in its monthly report.
Fed’s Bostic answers some questions
Answering questions now in Atlanta Fed’s.
Don’t expect stellar readings in this week’s UK retail sales data
UK April retail sales data release.